We present a Bayesian surrogate model for the analysis of periodic or quasi-periodic time series data. We describe a computationally efficient implementation that enables Bayesian model comparison. We apply this model to simulated and real exoplanet observations. We discuss the results and demonstrate some of the challenges for applying our surrogate model to realistic exoplanet data sets. In particular, we find that analyses of real world data should pay careful attention to the effects of uneven spacing of observations and the choice of prior for the "jitter" parameter.

Eric B. Ford Althea V. Moorhead Dimitri Veras

We investigate the behavior of the high frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) in 4U 0614+091, combining timing and spectral analysis of RXTE observations. The energy spectra of the source can be described by a power law (alpha ~ 2.8) and a blackbody (kT ~ 1.5), with the blackbody accounting for 10 - 20% of the total energy flux. We find a robust correlation of the frequency, nu, of the higher frequency QPO near 1 kHz with the flux of the blackbody, F_BB. The slope of this correlation, dlog(nu)/dlog(F_BB), is 0.27 to 0.37. The source follows the same relation even in observations separated by several months. The QPO frequency does not have a similarly unique correlation with the total flux or the flux of the power law component. The RMS fraction of the higher frequency QPO rises with energy from 6.8 +- 1.5 % (3-5 keV) to 21.3 +- 4.0 % (10-12 keV). For the lower frequency QPO, however, it is consistent with a constant value of 5.4 +- 0.9 %. The results may be interpreted in terms of a beat frequency model for the production of the high frequency QPOs.

Eric C. Ford Philip Kaaret Kaiyou Chen Marco Tavani Didier Barret Peter Bloser Jonathan Grindlay B. Alan Harmon William S. Paciesas S. Nan Zhang

(Abridged) The discovery of extrasolar planetary systems revealed an unexpected diversity of planetary systems that has revolutionized planet formation theory. A strong program of theoretical research is essential to maximize both the discovery potential and the scientific returns of future observational programs, so as to achieve a deeper understanding of the formation and evolution of planetary systems. We outline three broad categories of theoretical research: detailed studies of specific planetary systems, testing planet formation models by comparing their predictions to the observed exoplanet population, and detailed modeling of specific physical processes. We describe how such theoretical research plays an important role in analyzing observations for a wide range detection methods and contributes to understanding the Earth's place in the universe and the potential for Earth-like life beyond our solar system. In this white paper, we suggest how to maximize the scientific return of future exoplanet observations. Our recommendations include a strong theory program, support for multiple observational programs that will study a diverse set of planets and stars, significant observing time devoted to follow-up observations, and healthy collaboration between observers and theorists.

Eric B. Ford Fred C. Adams Phil Armitage B. Scott Gaudi Renu Malhotra Mathew J. Holman Geoffrey W. Marcy Frederic A. Rasio Steinn Sigurdsson

We have detected transient X-ray activity from the X-ray burster 4U~0614+091 simultaneously with BATSE/CGRO (20-100 keV) and ASM/RXTE (1-12 keV). The peak fluxes reach approximately 40 mCrab in both instruments over a period of about 20 days. The variable emission shows a clear anticorrelation of the hard X-ray flux with the soft X-ray count rate. The observed anticorrelation is another clear counterexample to the notion that only black hole binaries exhibit such correlations. The individual spectra during this period can be fit by power laws with photon indices 2.2+-0.3 (ASM) and 2.7+-0.4 (BATSE), while the combined spectra can be described by a single power law with index 2.09+-0.08. BATSE and the ASM/RXTE are a good combination for monitoring X-ray sources over a wide energy band.

E. Ford P. Kaaret M. Tavani B. A. Harmon S. N. Zhang D. Barret J. Grindlay P. Bloser R. A. Remillard

To achieve maximum planet yield for a given radial velocity survey, the observing strategy must be carefully considered. In particular, the adopted cadence can greatly affect the sensitivity to exoplanetary parameters such as period and eccentricity. Here we describe simulations which aim to maximise detections based upon the target parameter space of the survey.

Stephen R. Kane Eric B. Ford Jian Ge

We present a solution to the long outstanding meter barrier problem in planet formation theory. As solids spiral inward due to aerodynamic drag, they will enter disk regions that are characterized by high temperatures, densities, and pressures. High partial pressures of rock vapor can suppress solid evaporation, and promote collisions between partially molten solids, allowing rapid growth. This process should be ubiquitous in planet-forming disks, which may be evidenced by the abundant class of Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets (STIPs) discovered by the NASA Kepler mission.

Aaron C. Boley Melissa A. Morris Eric B. Ford

Transiting planets with radii 2-3 $R_\bigoplus$ are much more numerous than larger planets. We propose that this drop-off is so abrupt because at $R$ $\sim$ 3 $R_\bigoplus$, base-of-atmosphere pressure is high enough for the atmosphere to readily dissolve into magma, and this sequestration acts as a strong brake on further growth. The viability of this idea is demonstrated using a simple model. Our results support extensive magma-atmosphere equilibration on sub-Neptunes, with numerous implications for sub-Neptune formation and atmospheric chemistry.

Edwin S. Kite Bruce Fegley Jr. Laura Schaefer Eric B. Ford

Instabilities and strong dynamical interactions between several giant planets have been proposed as a possible explanation for the surprising orbital properties of extrasolar planetary systems. In particular, dynamical instabilities would seem to provide a natural mechanism for producing the highly eccentric orbits seen in many systems. Here we present results from numerical integrations for the dynamical evolution of planetary systems containing two identical giant planets in nearly circular orbits very close to the dynamical stability limit. We determine the statistical properties of the three main types of systems resulting from the development of an instability: systems containing one planet, following either a collision between the two initial planets, or the ejection of one of them to infinity, and systems containing two planets in a new, quasi-stable configuration. We discuss the implications of our results for the formation and evolution of observed extrasolar planetary systems. We conclude that the distributions of eccentricities and semimajor axes for observed systems cannot be explained easily by invoking dynamical interactions between two planets initially on circular orbits. While highly eccentric orbits can be produced naturally by these interactions, collisions between the two planets, which occur frequently in the range of observed semimajor axes, would result in many more nearly circular orbits than in the observed sample.

Eric B. Ford Marketa Havlickova Frederic A. Rasio

Instabilities and strong dynamical interactions between multiple giant planets have been proposed as a possible explanation for the surprising orbital properties of extrasolar planetary systems. In particular, dynamical instabilities seem to provide a natural mechanism for producing the highly eccentric orbits seen in many systems. Previously, we performed numerical integrations for the dynamical evolution of planetary systems containing two giant planets of equal masses initially in nearly circular orbits very close to the dynamical stability limit. We found the ratio of collisions to ejections in these simulations was greater than the ratio of circular orbits to eccentric orbits among the known extrasolar planets. Further, the mean eccentricity of the planets remaining after an ejection was larger than the mean eccentricity of the known extrasolar planets. Recently, we have performed additional integrations, generalizing to consider two planets of unequal masses. Our new simulations reveal that the two-planet scattering model can produce a distribution of eccentricities consistent with the observed eccentricity distribution for plausible mass distributions. Additionally, this model predicts a maximum eccentricity of about 0.8, in agreement with observations. Early results from simulations of three equal-mass planets also reveal a reduced frequency of collisions and a broad range of final eccentricities for the retained inner planet.

Eric B. Ford Frederic A. Rasio Kenneth Yu

The light scattered by an extrasolar Earth-like planet's surface and atmosphere will vary in intensity and color as the planet rotates; the resulting light curve will contain information about the planet's properties. Since most of the light comes from a small fraction of the planet's surface, the temporal flux variability can be quite significant, $\sim$ 10-100%. In addition, for cloudless Earth-like extrasolar planet models, qualitative changes to the surface (such as ocean fraction, ice cover) significantly affect the light curve. Clouds dominate the temporal variability of the Earth but can be coherent over several days. In contrast to Earth's temporal variability, a uniformly, heavily clouded planet (e.g. Venus), would show almost no flux variability. We present light curves for an unresolved Earth and for Earth-like model planets calculated by changing the surface features. This work suggests that meteorological variability and the rotation period of an Earth-like planet could be derived from photometric observations. The inverse problem of deriving surface properties from a given light curve is complex and will require much more investigation.

Eric B. Ford Sara Seager Edwin L. Turner