The stability analysis of possibly time varying positive semigroups on non necessarily compact state spaces, including Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions is a notoriously difficult subject. These crucial questions arise in a variety of areas of applied mathematics, including nonlinear filtering, rare event analysis, branching processes, physics and molecular chemistry. This article presents an overview of some recent Lyapunov-based approaches, focusing principally on practical and powerful tools for designing Lyapunov functions. These techniques include semigroup comparisons as well as conjugacy principles on non necessarily bounded manifolds with locally Lipschitz boundaries. All the Lyapunov methodologies discussed in the article are illustrated in a variety of situations, ranging from conventional Markov semigroups on general state spaces to more sophisticated conditional stochastic processes possibly restricted to some non necessarily bounded domains, including locally Lipschitz and smooth hypersurface boundaries, Langevin diffusions as well as coupled harmonic oscillators.

Marc Arnaudon Pierre Del Moral El Maati Ouhabaz

In this article we obtain several new results and developments in the study of entropic optimal transport problems (a.k.a. Schr\"odinger problems) with general reference distributions and log-concave target marginal measures. Our approach combines transportation cost inequalities with the theory of Riccati matrix difference equations arising in filtering and optimal control theory. This methodology is partly based on a novel entropic stability of Schr\"odinger bridges and closed form expressions of a class of discrete time algebraic Riccati equations. In the context of regularized entropic transport these techniques provide new sharp entropic map estimates. When applied to the stability of Sinkhorn semigroups, they also yield a series of novel contraction estimates in terms of the fixed point of Riccati equations. The strength of our approach is that it is applicable to a large class of models arising in machine learning and artificial intelligence algorithms. We illustrate the impact of our results in the context of regularized entropic transport, proximal samplers and diffusion generative models as well as diffusion flow matching models

Pierre Del Moral

The article presents new entropic continuity bounds for conditional expectations and conditional covariance matrices. These bounds are expressed in terms of the relative entropy between different coupling distributions. Our approach combines Wasserstein coupling with quadratic transportation cost inequalities. We illustrate the impact of these results in the context of entropic optimal transport problems. The entropic continuity theorem presented in the article allows to estimate the conditional expectations and the conditional covariances of Schr\" odinger and Sinkhorn transitions in terms of the relative entropy between the corresponding bridges. These entropic continuity bounds turns out to be a very useful tool for obtaining remarkably simple proofs of the exponential decays of the gradient and the Hessian of Schr\"odinger and Sinkhorn bridge potentials.

Pierre Del Moral

We propose a second order differential calculus to analyze the regularity and the stability properties of the distribution semigroup associated with McKean-Vlasov diffusions. This methodology provides second order Taylor type expansions with remainder for both the evolution semigroup as well as the stochastic flow associated with this class of nonlinear diffusions. Bismut-Elworthy-Li formulae for the gradient and the Hessian of the integro-differential operators associated with these expansions are also presented. The article also provides explicit Dyson-Phillips expansions and a refined analysis of the norm of these integro-differential operators. Under some natural and easily verifiable regularity conditions we derive a series of exponential decays inequalities with respect to the time horizon. We illustrate the impact of these results with a second order extension of the Alekseev-Gr{\"o}bner lemma to nonlinear measure valued semigroups and interacting diffusion flows. This second order perturbation analysis provides direct proofs of several uniform propagation of chaos properties w.r.t. the time parameter, including bias, fluctuation error estimate as well as exponential concentration inequalities.

M Arnaudon P del Moral

We design a theoretic tree-based functional representation of a class of Feynman-Kac particle distributions, including an extension of the Wick product formula to interacting particle systems. These weak expansions rely on an original combinatorial, and permutation group analysis of a special class of forests. They provide refined non asymptotic propagation of chaos type properties, as well as sharp $\LL\_p$-mean error bounds, and laws of large numbers for $U$-statistics. Applications to particle interpretations of the top eigenvalues, and the ground states of Schr\"{o}dinger semigroups are also discussed.

Pierre Del Moral Frédéric Patras Sylvain Rubenthaler

We analyze the Snell envelope with path dependent multiplicative optimality criteria. Especially for this case, we propose a variation of the Snell envelope backward recursion which allows to extend some classical approxima- tion schemes to the multiplicatively path dependent case. In this framework, we propose an importance sampling particle approximation scheme based on a specific change of measure, designed to concentrate the computational effort in regions pointed out by the criteria. This new algorithm is theoritically studied. We provide non asymptotic convergence estimates and prove that the resulting estimator is high biased.

Pierre Del Moral Peng Hu Nadia Oudjane

We analyse the exponential stability properties of a class of measure-valued equations arising in nonlinear multi-target filtering problems. We also prove the uniform convergence properties w.r.t. the time parameter of a rather general class of stochastic filtering algorithms, including sequential Monte Carlo type models and mean eld particle interpretation models. We illustrate these results in the context of the Bernoulli and the Probability Hypothesis Density filter, yielding what seems to be the first results of this kind in this subject.

Francois Caron Pierre Del Moral Michele Pace Vo Ba-Ngu

We present a multivariate central limit theorem for a general class of interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms used to solve nonlinear measure-valued equations. These algorithms generate stochastic processes which belong to the class of nonlinear Markov chains interacting with their empirical occupation measures. We develop an original theoretical analysis based on resolvent operators and semigroup techniques to analyze the fluctuations of their occupation measures around their limiting values.

Bernard Bercu Pierre Del Moral Arnaud Doucet

We consider the problem of local radioelectric property estimation from global electromagnetic scattering measurements. This challenging ill-posed high dimensional inverse problem can be explored by intensive computations of a parallel Maxwell solver on a petaflopic supercomputer. Then, it is shown how Bayesian inference can be perfomed with a Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) approach, which includes a Rao-Blackwellised Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm with interacting Kalman filters. Material properties, including a multiple components "Debye relaxation"/"Lorenzian resonant" material model, are estimated; it is illustrated on synthetic data. Eventually, we propose different ways to deal with higher dimensional problems, from parallelization to the original introduction of efficient sequential data assimilation techniques, widely used in weather forecasting, oceanography, geophysics, etc.

P. Minvielle A. Todeschini F. Caron P. Del Moral

Biips is a software platform for automatic Bayesian inference with interacting particle systems. Biips allows users to define their statistical model in the probabilistic programming BUGS language, as well as to add custom functions or samplers within this language. Then it runs sequential Monte Carlo based algorithms (particle filters, particle independent Metropolis-Hastings, particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings) in a black-box manner so that to approximate the posterior distribution of interest as well as the marginal likelihood. The software is developed in C++ with interfaces with the softwares R, Matlab and Octave.

Adrien Todeschini François Caron Marc Fuentes Pierrick Legrand Pierre Del Moral